Hiring the right person is one of the most important decisions a business can make. Yet, traditional interviews often prioritize superficial traits\u2014like confidence, charm, or appearance\u2014over true competence. When a bad hire slips through, it can cost companies time, productivity, and morale. So, why do interviews still dominate the hiring process, and what can we do better?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this blog, we\u2019ll explore how unconscious biases influence interviews, what science says about better hiring methods, and how you can reduce costly hiring mistakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Interviews Are Riddled with Biases<\/h3>\n\n\n\n1. First Impressions Override Substance<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nHuman beings are naturally wired to make quick judgments. In interviews, this often means forming an impression within the first few seconds based on the candidate’s appearance, handshake, posture, or voice. Research by Ambady & Rosenthal (1993) found that observers could make highly consistent personality judgments from 30-second silent video clips of teachers. This concept, known as \u201cthin slicing,\u201d shows just how quickly we form impressions\u2014and why this can be dangerous in hiring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. The Halo Effect<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nIf a candidate is attractive or well-spoken, we tend to attribute other positive traits to them, like intelligence or reliability. This is called the halo effect. A meta-analysis by Hosoda, Stone-Romero & Coats (2003) confirmed that physically attractive individuals tend to be rated more favorably in job interviews\u2014regardless of their actual qualifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3. The Similarity Bias<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nInterviewers often feel more comfortable with people who resemble them in background, values, or communication style. This leads to a preference for hiring people who \u201cfit\u201d the company culture\u2014which may unconsciously exclude diverse candidates. Rivera (2012) found that interviewers favored candidates with whom they shared similar extracurricular interests or upbringing over equally qualified others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Confidence \u2260 Competence<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nMany people mistake confidence for capability. Extroverted candidates who speak with energy and certainty tend to be seen as more competent\u2014even if their actual performance doesn\u2019t match. Introverts or non-native speakers, who may be equally or more skilled, often get overlooked. This overreliance on social performance creates false positives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. Unstructured Interviews Are Unreliable<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nSchmidt & Hunter\u2019s (1998) famous meta-analysis revealed that unstructured interviews have low predictive validity for job performance. They found that general mental ability (GMA) tests, combined with structured interviews or work samples, are far better predictors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/divinosolutions.com\/explore-insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/The-Bias-of-Interviews_-Are-You-Just-Hiring-a-Smile_-visual-selection-2.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nReal-World Consequences<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nHiring based on bias doesn\u2019t just affect the candidate\u2014it impacts your whole organization. A wrong hire can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- Reduce team morale<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Create friction among colleagues<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Lower productivity<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Increase turnover<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
According to a CareerBuilder study, 74% of employers say they\u2019ve hired the wrong person for a position. The average cost of a bad hire can be as much as $14,900. These mistakes are expensive and avoidable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gallup\u2019s State of the American Manager<\/em> report (2015) revealed that managers are responsible for 70% of the variance in employee engagement. If your interview process places someone incompetent in a managerial role, the fallout can be massive\u2014not just financially but culturally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nWhat the Science Says Works Better<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
So, what actually works?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. Structured Interviews<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nThese interviews ask every candidate the same set of questions, with scoring rubrics for each. This reduces the effect of first impressions or personal bias. Structured interviews have much higher predictive validity (around 0.51) compared to unstructured ones (around 0.38), according to Schmidt & Hunter (1998).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. Work Sample Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nInstead of asking \u201cHow would you handle this situation?\u201d, ask them to do<\/strong> it. Can they write, design, or manage as needed? Work samples simulate job tasks and test candidates based on actual performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n3. Cognitive Ability Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nGeneral mental ability (GMA) tests are among the most reliable predictors of job success. They measure problem-solving, learning ability, and critical thinking\u2014skills that matter across industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Personality Assessments<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nTraits like conscientiousness and emotional stability are strong indicators of job performance. Conscientious employees are dependable and persistent, while emotionally stable employees manage stress well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. Blind Hiring Practices<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nRemoving names, photos, and even educational institutions from resumes can help reduce implicit bias in the early stages of screening. Some companies also anonymize assessments to judge purely on merit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nJordan Peterson\u2019s Take on the Interview Trap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Jordan B. Peterson, a clinical psychologist and former University of Toronto professor, has spoken extensively on why face-to-face interviews are flawed. In one of his Personality and Its Transformations<\/em> lectures, he notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\u201cTall, good-looking, extroverted people tend to do much better in interviews than short, unattractive, introverted people. And none of that has anything to do with job performance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
He points out that the most predictive hiring tools are cognitive tests and personality assessments\u2014not gut feelings or charisma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He also critiques the over-reliance on GPA or academic background. A 4.0 GPA from one school might not equal a 4.0 from another. Grades are full of measurement errors and don\u2019t always reflect creativity, work ethic, or adaptability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peterson argues for a probabilistic model of hiring. Instead of 50\/50 odds of getting a good employee through guesswork, structured testing can raise that to 70\/30\u2014or better. Over time, this drastically improves a company\u2019s talent pool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nA Business Example: The Cost of Guessing<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nLet\u2019s compare two hiring scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scenario 1: Gut-feel Interviews (50\/50 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n- 5 top performers produce $100,000 each = $500,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 5 poor performers produce $50,000 each = $250,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Total output = $750,000\/year<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Scenario 2: Test-Based Hiring (70\/30 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n- 7 top performers produce $100,000 each = $700,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 3 poor performers produce $50,000 each = $150,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Total output = $850,000\/year<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Gain = $100,000\/year<\/strong> from smarter hiring practices.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAnd that\u2019s just from one round of hiring. Multiply this across departments and years, and the difference is exponential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nWhat Companies Should Do<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n- Rethink Interviews<\/strong>: Use structured formats. Train interviewers to recognize bias.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Use Science-Backed Tests<\/strong>: Combine cognitive and personality tests with task-based assessments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Track Outcomes<\/strong>: Monitor how hires perform over time to refine your process.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Build a Data-Driven Culture<\/strong>: Make hiring decisions based on evidence, not intuition.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Be Inclusive<\/strong>: Ensure your process gives every candidate a fair shot\u2014regardless of background.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nFinal Thoughts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Hiring isn\u2019t about finding the flashiest smile or the most confident voice. It\u2019s about finding people who will contribute meaningfully to your organization\u2019s goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Face-to-face interviews, especially unstructured ones, fail to capture what really matters. In a world where productivity follows a Pareto distribution<\/strong>\u2014where a small portion of employees produce the most results\u2014you can\u2019t afford to keep guessing.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s time to adopt a smarter, fairer, and more effective approach to hiring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s stop hiring smiles\u2014and start hiring skills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nNeed help improving your hiring process? Contact Divino Solutions<\/a> today for science-backed recruitment solutions or check out how to simplify recruitment<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nReferences (Full List)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n- Indeed Employer Content Team (2024).<\/strong> 10 Recruitment Strategies for Hiring Great Employees.<\/em> Indeed Hiring Resource Center. Last updated July 23, 2024. indeed.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- BDC (Business Development Bank of Canada) (2023).<\/strong> How to Hire the Right People for Your Business \u2013 7 Steps to Avoid Bad Hiring Decisions.<\/em> BDC.ca \u2013 Articles & Tools for Entrepreneurs. bdc.ca<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Cappelli, P. (2019).<\/strong> Your Approach to Hiring Is All Wrong.<\/em> Harvard Business Review<\/strong> (May\u2013June 2019 issue), pp. 48\u201358. hbr.org<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Cappelli, P. (2019).<\/strong> Our Hiring Practices are a Mess.<\/em> LinkedIn Article, Feb 21, 2019. linkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Hoffman, M., Kahn, L.B., & Li, D. (2018).<\/strong> Discretion in Hiring.<\/em> Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133<\/strong>(2), 765\u2013800. (NBER Working Paper No. 21709). Summary: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics\u200bbls.gov<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- CareerBuilder Survey (2017).<\/strong> Nearly Three in Four Employers Affected by a Bad Hire.<\/em> Harris Poll of 2,257 hiring managers (Press Release). Summary reported by HR Dive\u200bhrdive.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Fatemi, F. (2016).<\/strong> The True Cost Of A Bad Hire \u2014 It\u2019s More Than You Think.<\/em> Forbes, Sept 28, 2016. linkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Hayes, L. (2017).<\/strong> Nearly Three in Four Employers Affected By a Bad Hire, According to CareerBuilder Survey.<\/em> CareerBuilder Press Room, Dec 7, 2017\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Schmidt, F.L., & Hunter, J.E. (1998).<\/strong> The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology.<\/em> Psychological Bulletin, 124<\/strong>(2), 262\u2013274. (Meta-analysis of 85 years of personnel selection research)\u200bplum.io<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Plum.io Blog (2020).<\/strong> 3 Things You Must Know About Selection, According to Schmidt & Hunter.<\/em> (Summary of Schmidt & Hunter\u2019s findings)\u200bplum.io<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Peterson, J.B. (2017).<\/strong> Basic Psychometric Issues Surrounding Performance Prediction.<\/em> (Paper\/lecture notes on personality and job performance). Cited in CPA Practice Advisor article \u201cHow to Scientifically Hire\u2026\u201d.\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- CPA Practice Advisor (2017).<\/strong> How to Scientifically Hire the Hardest Working Staff…<\/em> (Oct 6, 2017) \u2013 Quotes research by Jordan Peterson on conscientiousness and hiring\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Energy Project & Harvard Business Review (2014).<\/strong> Why Purpose and Meaning Matter for Employee Engagement.<\/em> HBR.org (study finding engaged employees far more likely to stay)\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Willis, J. & Todorov, A. (2006).<\/strong> First Impressions: Making Up Your Mind After a 100-Ms Exposure to a Face.<\/em> Psychological Science, 17<\/strong>(7), 592\u2013598. (Research on rapid first impressions)\u200bthedecisionlab.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The Decision Lab (n.d.).<\/strong> The First Impression Bias.<\/em> (Explainer on how quick judgments form and can be inaccurate)\u200bthedecisionlab.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Indeed Employer Content Team (n.d.).<\/strong> Treat Candidates Like Customers.<\/em> Indeed Hiring Guide \u2013 Interviewing section\u200bindeed.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- LinkedIn Talent Solutions (2016).<\/strong> Global Recruiting Trends 2016.<\/em> (LinkedIn survey data: only 28% of talent leaders say internal candidates are a key source; passive vs active candidate motivations)\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Gladwell, M. (2000).<\/strong> The New-Boy Network.<\/em> The New Yorker<\/strong>, Dec 2000. (On how interviews often fail to predict performance, snap judgments in hiring).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Sinek, S. (2009).<\/strong> Start With Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action.<\/em> New York: Penguin. (Importance of hiring for shared values\/purpose)\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Schmidt, F.L., Oh, I., & Shaffer, J. (2016).<\/strong> Update of 100 Years of Research Findings in Personnel Selection.<\/em> Journal of Applied Psychology, 102<\/strong>(3), 448\u2013458. (Update to Schmidt & Hunter, confirming cognitive ability & structured interviews as top predictors).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
(All links accessed and verified on April 9, 2025.)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Traditional Interviews Fail to Predict Job Performance Hiring the right person is one of the most important decisions a business can make. Yet, traditional interviews…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":43,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hr-technology-tools","entry"],"yoast_head":"\n
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The average cost of a bad hire can be as much as $14,900. These mistakes are expensive and avoidable.Gallup\u2019s State of the American Manager report revealed that managers are responsible for 70% of the variance in employee engagement. If your interview process places someone incompetent in a managerial role, the fallout can be massive\u2014not just financially but culturally.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/divinosolutions.com\/explore-insights\/the-bias-of-interviews-are-you-just-hiring-a-smile\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Bias of Interviews: Are You Just Hiring a Smile? - HR Insights | Divino","og_description":"According to a CareerBuilder study, 74% of employers say they\u2019ve hired the wrong person for a position. The average cost of a bad hire can be as much as $14,900. 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The average cost of a bad hire can be as much as $14,900. These mistakes are expensive and avoidable.Gallup\u2019s State of the American Manager report revealed that managers are responsible for 70% of the variance in employee engagement. 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Human beings are naturally wired to make quick judgments. In interviews, this often means forming an impression within the first few seconds based on the candidate’s appearance, handshake, posture, or voice. Research by Ambady & Rosenthal (1993) found that observers could make highly consistent personality judgments from 30-second silent video clips of teachers. This concept, known as \u201cthin slicing,\u201d shows just how quickly we form impressions\u2014and why this can be dangerous in hiring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. The Halo Effect<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nIf a candidate is attractive or well-spoken, we tend to attribute other positive traits to them, like intelligence or reliability. This is called the halo effect. A meta-analysis by Hosoda, Stone-Romero & Coats (2003) confirmed that physically attractive individuals tend to be rated more favorably in job interviews\u2014regardless of their actual qualifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3. The Similarity Bias<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nInterviewers often feel more comfortable with people who resemble them in background, values, or communication style. This leads to a preference for hiring people who \u201cfit\u201d the company culture\u2014which may unconsciously exclude diverse candidates. Rivera (2012) found that interviewers favored candidates with whom they shared similar extracurricular interests or upbringing over equally qualified others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Confidence \u2260 Competence<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nMany people mistake confidence for capability. Extroverted candidates who speak with energy and certainty tend to be seen as more competent\u2014even if their actual performance doesn\u2019t match. Introverts or non-native speakers, who may be equally or more skilled, often get overlooked. This overreliance on social performance creates false positives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. Unstructured Interviews Are Unreliable<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nSchmidt & Hunter\u2019s (1998) famous meta-analysis revealed that unstructured interviews have low predictive validity for job performance. They found that general mental ability (GMA) tests, combined with structured interviews or work samples, are far better predictors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\nReal-World Consequences<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nHiring based on bias doesn\u2019t just affect the candidate\u2014it impacts your whole organization. A wrong hire can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- Reduce team morale<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Create friction among colleagues<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Lower productivity<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Increase turnover<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
According to a CareerBuilder study, 74% of employers say they\u2019ve hired the wrong person for a position. The average cost of a bad hire can be as much as $14,900. These mistakes are expensive and avoidable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gallup\u2019s State of the American Manager<\/em> report (2015) revealed that managers are responsible for 70% of the variance in employee engagement. If your interview process places someone incompetent in a managerial role, the fallout can be massive\u2014not just financially but culturally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nWhat the Science Says Works Better<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
So, what actually works?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. Structured Interviews<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nThese interviews ask every candidate the same set of questions, with scoring rubrics for each. This reduces the effect of first impressions or personal bias. Structured interviews have much higher predictive validity (around 0.51) compared to unstructured ones (around 0.38), according to Schmidt & Hunter (1998).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. Work Sample Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nInstead of asking \u201cHow would you handle this situation?\u201d, ask them to do<\/strong> it. Can they write, design, or manage as needed? Work samples simulate job tasks and test candidates based on actual performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n3. Cognitive Ability Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nGeneral mental ability (GMA) tests are among the most reliable predictors of job success. They measure problem-solving, learning ability, and critical thinking\u2014skills that matter across industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Personality Assessments<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nTraits like conscientiousness and emotional stability are strong indicators of job performance. Conscientious employees are dependable and persistent, while emotionally stable employees manage stress well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. Blind Hiring Practices<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nRemoving names, photos, and even educational institutions from resumes can help reduce implicit bias in the early stages of screening. Some companies also anonymize assessments to judge purely on merit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nJordan Peterson\u2019s Take on the Interview Trap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Jordan B. Peterson, a clinical psychologist and former University of Toronto professor, has spoken extensively on why face-to-face interviews are flawed. In one of his Personality and Its Transformations<\/em> lectures, he notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\u201cTall, good-looking, extroverted people tend to do much better in interviews than short, unattractive, introverted people. And none of that has anything to do with job performance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
He points out that the most predictive hiring tools are cognitive tests and personality assessments\u2014not gut feelings or charisma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He also critiques the over-reliance on GPA or academic background. A 4.0 GPA from one school might not equal a 4.0 from another. Grades are full of measurement errors and don\u2019t always reflect creativity, work ethic, or adaptability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peterson argues for a probabilistic model of hiring. Instead of 50\/50 odds of getting a good employee through guesswork, structured testing can raise that to 70\/30\u2014or better. Over time, this drastically improves a company\u2019s talent pool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nA Business Example: The Cost of Guessing<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nLet\u2019s compare two hiring scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scenario 1: Gut-feel Interviews (50\/50 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n- 5 top performers produce $100,000 each = $500,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 5 poor performers produce $50,000 each = $250,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Total output = $750,000\/year<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Scenario 2: Test-Based Hiring (70\/30 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n- 7 top performers produce $100,000 each = $700,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 3 poor performers produce $50,000 each = $150,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Total output = $850,000\/year<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Gain = $100,000\/year<\/strong> from smarter hiring practices.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAnd that\u2019s just from one round of hiring. Multiply this across departments and years, and the difference is exponential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nWhat Companies Should Do<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n- Rethink Interviews<\/strong>: Use structured formats. Train interviewers to recognize bias.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Use Science-Backed Tests<\/strong>: Combine cognitive and personality tests with task-based assessments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Track Outcomes<\/strong>: Monitor how hires perform over time to refine your process.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Build a Data-Driven Culture<\/strong>: Make hiring decisions based on evidence, not intuition.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Be Inclusive<\/strong>: Ensure your process gives every candidate a fair shot\u2014regardless of background.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nFinal Thoughts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Hiring isn\u2019t about finding the flashiest smile or the most confident voice. It\u2019s about finding people who will contribute meaningfully to your organization\u2019s goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Face-to-face interviews, especially unstructured ones, fail to capture what really matters. In a world where productivity follows a Pareto distribution<\/strong>\u2014where a small portion of employees produce the most results\u2014you can\u2019t afford to keep guessing.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s time to adopt a smarter, fairer, and more effective approach to hiring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s stop hiring smiles\u2014and start hiring skills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nNeed help improving your hiring process? Contact Divino Solutions<\/a> today for science-backed recruitment solutions or check out how to simplify recruitment<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nReferences (Full List)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n- Indeed Employer Content Team (2024).<\/strong> 10 Recruitment Strategies for Hiring Great Employees.<\/em> Indeed Hiring Resource Center. Last updated July 23, 2024. indeed.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- BDC (Business Development Bank of Canada) (2023).<\/strong> How to Hire the Right People for Your Business \u2013 7 Steps to Avoid Bad Hiring Decisions.<\/em> BDC.ca \u2013 Articles & Tools for Entrepreneurs. bdc.ca<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Cappelli, P. (2019).<\/strong> Your Approach to Hiring Is All Wrong.<\/em> Harvard Business Review<\/strong> (May\u2013June 2019 issue), pp. 48\u201358. hbr.org<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Cappelli, P. (2019).<\/strong> Our Hiring Practices are a Mess.<\/em> LinkedIn Article, Feb 21, 2019. linkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Hoffman, M., Kahn, L.B., & Li, D. (2018).<\/strong> Discretion in Hiring.<\/em> Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133<\/strong>(2), 765\u2013800. (NBER Working Paper No. 21709). Summary: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics\u200bbls.gov<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- CareerBuilder Survey (2017).<\/strong> Nearly Three in Four Employers Affected by a Bad Hire.<\/em> Harris Poll of 2,257 hiring managers (Press Release). Summary reported by HR Dive\u200bhrdive.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Fatemi, F. (2016).<\/strong> The True Cost Of A Bad Hire \u2014 It\u2019s More Than You Think.<\/em> Forbes, Sept 28, 2016. linkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Hayes, L. (2017).<\/strong> Nearly Three in Four Employers Affected By a Bad Hire, According to CareerBuilder Survey.<\/em> CareerBuilder Press Room, Dec 7, 2017\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Schmidt, F.L., & Hunter, J.E. (1998).<\/strong> The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology.<\/em> Psychological Bulletin, 124<\/strong>(2), 262\u2013274. (Meta-analysis of 85 years of personnel selection research)\u200bplum.io<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Plum.io Blog (2020).<\/strong> 3 Things You Must Know About Selection, According to Schmidt & Hunter.<\/em> (Summary of Schmidt & Hunter\u2019s findings)\u200bplum.io<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Peterson, J.B. (2017).<\/strong> Basic Psychometric Issues Surrounding Performance Prediction.<\/em> (Paper\/lecture notes on personality and job performance). Cited in CPA Practice Advisor article \u201cHow to Scientifically Hire\u2026\u201d.\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- CPA Practice Advisor (2017).<\/strong> How to Scientifically Hire the Hardest Working Staff…<\/em> (Oct 6, 2017) \u2013 Quotes research by Jordan Peterson on conscientiousness and hiring\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Energy Project & Harvard Business Review (2014).<\/strong> Why Purpose and Meaning Matter for Employee Engagement.<\/em> HBR.org (study finding engaged employees far more likely to stay)\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Willis, J. & Todorov, A. (2006).<\/strong> First Impressions: Making Up Your Mind After a 100-Ms Exposure to a Face.<\/em> Psychological Science, 17<\/strong>(7), 592\u2013598. (Research on rapid first impressions)\u200bthedecisionlab.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The Decision Lab (n.d.).<\/strong> The First Impression Bias.<\/em> (Explainer on how quick judgments form and can be inaccurate)\u200bthedecisionlab.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Indeed Employer Content Team (n.d.).<\/strong> Treat Candidates Like Customers.<\/em> Indeed Hiring Guide \u2013 Interviewing section\u200bindeed.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- LinkedIn Talent Solutions (2016).<\/strong> Global Recruiting Trends 2016.<\/em> (LinkedIn survey data: only 28% of talent leaders say internal candidates are a key source; passive vs active candidate motivations)\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Gladwell, M. (2000).<\/strong> The New-Boy Network.<\/em> The New Yorker<\/strong>, Dec 2000. (On how interviews often fail to predict performance, snap judgments in hiring).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Sinek, S. (2009).<\/strong> Start With Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action.<\/em> New York: Penguin. (Importance of hiring for shared values\/purpose)\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Schmidt, F.L., Oh, I., & Shaffer, J. (2016).<\/strong> Update of 100 Years of Research Findings in Personnel Selection.<\/em> Journal of Applied Psychology, 102<\/strong>(3), 448\u2013458. (Update to Schmidt & Hunter, confirming cognitive ability & structured interviews as top predictors).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
(All links accessed and verified on April 9, 2025.)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Traditional Interviews Fail to Predict Job Performance Hiring the right person is one of the most important decisions a business can make. Yet, traditional interviews…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":43,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hr-technology-tools","entry"],"yoast_head":"\n
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Interviewers often feel more comfortable with people who resemble them in background, values, or communication style. This leads to a preference for hiring people who \u201cfit\u201d the company culture\u2014which may unconsciously exclude diverse candidates. Rivera (2012) found that interviewers favored candidates with whom they shared similar extracurricular interests or upbringing over equally qualified others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Confidence \u2260 Competence<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nMany people mistake confidence for capability. Extroverted candidates who speak with energy and certainty tend to be seen as more competent\u2014even if their actual performance doesn\u2019t match. Introverts or non-native speakers, who may be equally or more skilled, often get overlooked. This overreliance on social performance creates false positives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. Unstructured Interviews Are Unreliable<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nSchmidt & Hunter\u2019s (1998) famous meta-analysis revealed that unstructured interviews have low predictive validity for job performance. They found that general mental ability (GMA) tests, combined with structured interviews or work samples, are far better predictors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\nReal-World Consequences<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nHiring based on bias doesn\u2019t just affect the candidate\u2014it impacts your whole organization. A wrong hire can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- Reduce team morale<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Create friction among colleagues<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Lower productivity<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Increase turnover<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
According to a CareerBuilder study, 74% of employers say they\u2019ve hired the wrong person for a position. The average cost of a bad hire can be as much as $14,900. These mistakes are expensive and avoidable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gallup\u2019s State of the American Manager<\/em> report (2015) revealed that managers are responsible for 70% of the variance in employee engagement. If your interview process places someone incompetent in a managerial role, the fallout can be massive\u2014not just financially but culturally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nWhat the Science Says Works Better<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
So, what actually works?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. Structured Interviews<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nThese interviews ask every candidate the same set of questions, with scoring rubrics for each. This reduces the effect of first impressions or personal bias. Structured interviews have much higher predictive validity (around 0.51) compared to unstructured ones (around 0.38), according to Schmidt & Hunter (1998).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. Work Sample Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nInstead of asking \u201cHow would you handle this situation?\u201d, ask them to do<\/strong> it. Can they write, design, or manage as needed? Work samples simulate job tasks and test candidates based on actual performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n3. Cognitive Ability Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nGeneral mental ability (GMA) tests are among the most reliable predictors of job success. They measure problem-solving, learning ability, and critical thinking\u2014skills that matter across industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Personality Assessments<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nTraits like conscientiousness and emotional stability are strong indicators of job performance. Conscientious employees are dependable and persistent, while emotionally stable employees manage stress well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. Blind Hiring Practices<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nRemoving names, photos, and even educational institutions from resumes can help reduce implicit bias in the early stages of screening. Some companies also anonymize assessments to judge purely on merit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nJordan Peterson\u2019s Take on the Interview Trap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Jordan B. Peterson, a clinical psychologist and former University of Toronto professor, has spoken extensively on why face-to-face interviews are flawed. In one of his Personality and Its Transformations<\/em> lectures, he notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\u201cTall, good-looking, extroverted people tend to do much better in interviews than short, unattractive, introverted people. And none of that has anything to do with job performance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
He points out that the most predictive hiring tools are cognitive tests and personality assessments\u2014not gut feelings or charisma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He also critiques the over-reliance on GPA or academic background. A 4.0 GPA from one school might not equal a 4.0 from another. Grades are full of measurement errors and don\u2019t always reflect creativity, work ethic, or adaptability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peterson argues for a probabilistic model of hiring. Instead of 50\/50 odds of getting a good employee through guesswork, structured testing can raise that to 70\/30\u2014or better. Over time, this drastically improves a company\u2019s talent pool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nA Business Example: The Cost of Guessing<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nLet\u2019s compare two hiring scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scenario 1: Gut-feel Interviews (50\/50 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n- 5 top performers produce $100,000 each = $500,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 5 poor performers produce $50,000 each = $250,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Total output = $750,000\/year<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Scenario 2: Test-Based Hiring (70\/30 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n- 7 top performers produce $100,000 each = $700,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 3 poor performers produce $50,000 each = $150,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Total output = $850,000\/year<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Gain = $100,000\/year<\/strong> from smarter hiring practices.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAnd that\u2019s just from one round of hiring. Multiply this across departments and years, and the difference is exponential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nWhat Companies Should Do<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n- Rethink Interviews<\/strong>: Use structured formats. Train interviewers to recognize bias.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Use Science-Backed Tests<\/strong>: Combine cognitive and personality tests with task-based assessments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Track Outcomes<\/strong>: Monitor how hires perform over time to refine your process.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Build a Data-Driven Culture<\/strong>: Make hiring decisions based on evidence, not intuition.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Be Inclusive<\/strong>: Ensure your process gives every candidate a fair shot\u2014regardless of background.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nFinal Thoughts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Hiring isn\u2019t about finding the flashiest smile or the most confident voice. It\u2019s about finding people who will contribute meaningfully to your organization\u2019s goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Face-to-face interviews, especially unstructured ones, fail to capture what really matters. In a world where productivity follows a Pareto distribution<\/strong>\u2014where a small portion of employees produce the most results\u2014you can\u2019t afford to keep guessing.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s time to adopt a smarter, fairer, and more effective approach to hiring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s stop hiring smiles\u2014and start hiring skills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nNeed help improving your hiring process? Contact Divino Solutions<\/a> today for science-backed recruitment solutions or check out how to simplify recruitment<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nReferences (Full List)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n- Indeed Employer Content Team (2024).<\/strong> 10 Recruitment Strategies for Hiring Great Employees.<\/em> Indeed Hiring Resource Center. Last updated July 23, 2024. indeed.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- BDC (Business Development Bank of Canada) (2023).<\/strong> How to Hire the Right People for Your Business \u2013 7 Steps to Avoid Bad Hiring Decisions.<\/em> BDC.ca \u2013 Articles & Tools for Entrepreneurs. bdc.ca<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Cappelli, P. (2019).<\/strong> Your Approach to Hiring Is All Wrong.<\/em> Harvard Business Review<\/strong> (May\u2013June 2019 issue), pp. 48\u201358. hbr.org<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Cappelli, P. (2019).<\/strong> Our Hiring Practices are a Mess.<\/em> LinkedIn Article, Feb 21, 2019. linkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Hoffman, M., Kahn, L.B., & Li, D. (2018).<\/strong> Discretion in Hiring.<\/em> Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133<\/strong>(2), 765\u2013800. (NBER Working Paper No. 21709). Summary: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics\u200bbls.gov<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- CareerBuilder Survey (2017).<\/strong> Nearly Three in Four Employers Affected by a Bad Hire.<\/em> Harris Poll of 2,257 hiring managers (Press Release). Summary reported by HR Dive\u200bhrdive.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Fatemi, F. (2016).<\/strong> The True Cost Of A Bad Hire \u2014 It\u2019s More Than You Think.<\/em> Forbes, Sept 28, 2016. linkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Hayes, L. (2017).<\/strong> Nearly Three in Four Employers Affected By a Bad Hire, According to CareerBuilder Survey.<\/em> CareerBuilder Press Room, Dec 7, 2017\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Schmidt, F.L., & Hunter, J.E. (1998).<\/strong> The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology.<\/em> Psychological Bulletin, 124<\/strong>(2), 262\u2013274. (Meta-analysis of 85 years of personnel selection research)\u200bplum.io<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Plum.io Blog (2020).<\/strong> 3 Things You Must Know About Selection, According to Schmidt & Hunter.<\/em> (Summary of Schmidt & Hunter\u2019s findings)\u200bplum.io<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Peterson, J.B. (2017).<\/strong> Basic Psychometric Issues Surrounding Performance Prediction.<\/em> (Paper\/lecture notes on personality and job performance). Cited in CPA Practice Advisor article \u201cHow to Scientifically Hire\u2026\u201d.\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- CPA Practice Advisor (2017).<\/strong> How to Scientifically Hire the Hardest Working Staff…<\/em> (Oct 6, 2017) \u2013 Quotes research by Jordan Peterson on conscientiousness and hiring\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Energy Project & Harvard Business Review (2014).<\/strong> Why Purpose and Meaning Matter for Employee Engagement.<\/em> HBR.org (study finding engaged employees far more likely to stay)\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Willis, J. & Todorov, A. (2006).<\/strong> First Impressions: Making Up Your Mind After a 100-Ms Exposure to a Face.<\/em> Psychological Science, 17<\/strong>(7), 592\u2013598. (Research on rapid first impressions)\u200bthedecisionlab.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The Decision Lab (n.d.).<\/strong> The First Impression Bias.<\/em> (Explainer on how quick judgments form and can be inaccurate)\u200bthedecisionlab.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Indeed Employer Content Team (n.d.).<\/strong> Treat Candidates Like Customers.<\/em> Indeed Hiring Guide \u2013 Interviewing section\u200bindeed.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- LinkedIn Talent Solutions (2016).<\/strong> Global Recruiting Trends 2016.<\/em> (LinkedIn survey data: only 28% of talent leaders say internal candidates are a key source; passive vs active candidate motivations)\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Gladwell, M. (2000).<\/strong> The New-Boy Network.<\/em> The New Yorker<\/strong>, Dec 2000. (On how interviews often fail to predict performance, snap judgments in hiring).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Sinek, S. (2009).<\/strong> Start With Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action.<\/em> New York: Penguin. (Importance of hiring for shared values\/purpose)\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Schmidt, F.L., Oh, I., & Shaffer, J. (2016).<\/strong> Update of 100 Years of Research Findings in Personnel Selection.<\/em> Journal of Applied Psychology, 102<\/strong>(3), 448\u2013458. (Update to Schmidt & Hunter, confirming cognitive ability & structured interviews as top predictors).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
(All links accessed and verified on April 9, 2025.)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Traditional Interviews Fail to Predict Job Performance Hiring the right person is one of the most important decisions a business can make. Yet, traditional interviews…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":43,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hr-technology-tools","entry"],"yoast_head":"\n
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Schmidt & Hunter\u2019s (1998) famous meta-analysis revealed that unstructured interviews have low predictive validity for job performance. They found that general mental ability (GMA) tests, combined with structured interviews or work samples, are far better predictors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nReal-World Consequences<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nHiring based on bias doesn\u2019t just affect the candidate\u2014it impacts your whole organization. A wrong hire can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- Reduce team morale<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Create friction among colleagues<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Lower productivity<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Increase turnover<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
According to a CareerBuilder study, 74% of employers say they\u2019ve hired the wrong person for a position. The average cost of a bad hire can be as much as $14,900. These mistakes are expensive and avoidable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gallup\u2019s State of the American Manager<\/em> report (2015) revealed that managers are responsible for 70% of the variance in employee engagement. If your interview process places someone incompetent in a managerial role, the fallout can be massive\u2014not just financially but culturally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nWhat the Science Says Works Better<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
So, what actually works?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. Structured Interviews<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nThese interviews ask every candidate the same set of questions, with scoring rubrics for each. This reduces the effect of first impressions or personal bias. Structured interviews have much higher predictive validity (around 0.51) compared to unstructured ones (around 0.38), according to Schmidt & Hunter (1998).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. Work Sample Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nInstead of asking \u201cHow would you handle this situation?\u201d, ask them to do<\/strong> it. Can they write, design, or manage as needed? Work samples simulate job tasks and test candidates based on actual performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n3. Cognitive Ability Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nGeneral mental ability (GMA) tests are among the most reliable predictors of job success. They measure problem-solving, learning ability, and critical thinking\u2014skills that matter across industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Personality Assessments<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nTraits like conscientiousness and emotional stability are strong indicators of job performance. Conscientious employees are dependable and persistent, while emotionally stable employees manage stress well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. Blind Hiring Practices<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\nRemoving names, photos, and even educational institutions from resumes can help reduce implicit bias in the early stages of screening. Some companies also anonymize assessments to judge purely on merit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nJordan Peterson\u2019s Take on the Interview Trap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Jordan B. Peterson, a clinical psychologist and former University of Toronto professor, has spoken extensively on why face-to-face interviews are flawed. In one of his Personality and Its Transformations<\/em> lectures, he notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\u201cTall, good-looking, extroverted people tend to do much better in interviews than short, unattractive, introverted people. And none of that has anything to do with job performance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
He points out that the most predictive hiring tools are cognitive tests and personality assessments\u2014not gut feelings or charisma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He also critiques the over-reliance on GPA or academic background. A 4.0 GPA from one school might not equal a 4.0 from another. Grades are full of measurement errors and don\u2019t always reflect creativity, work ethic, or adaptability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peterson argues for a probabilistic model of hiring. Instead of 50\/50 odds of getting a good employee through guesswork, structured testing can raise that to 70\/30\u2014or better. Over time, this drastically improves a company\u2019s talent pool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nA Business Example: The Cost of Guessing<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\nLet\u2019s compare two hiring scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scenario 1: Gut-feel Interviews (50\/50 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n- 5 top performers produce $100,000 each = $500,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 5 poor performers produce $50,000 each = $250,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Total output = $750,000\/year<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Scenario 2: Test-Based Hiring (70\/30 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n- 7 top performers produce $100,000 each = $700,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 3 poor performers produce $50,000 each = $150,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Total output = $850,000\/year<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Gain = $100,000\/year<\/strong> from smarter hiring practices.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAnd that\u2019s just from one round of hiring. Multiply this across departments and years, and the difference is exponential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nWhat Companies Should Do<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n- Rethink Interviews<\/strong>: Use structured formats. Train interviewers to recognize bias.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Use Science-Backed Tests<\/strong>: Combine cognitive and personality tests with task-based assessments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Track Outcomes<\/strong>: Monitor how hires perform over time to refine your process.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Build a Data-Driven Culture<\/strong>: Make hiring decisions based on evidence, not intuition.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Be Inclusive<\/strong>: Ensure your process gives every candidate a fair shot\u2014regardless of background.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nFinal Thoughts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Hiring isn\u2019t about finding the flashiest smile or the most confident voice. It\u2019s about finding people who will contribute meaningfully to your organization\u2019s goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Face-to-face interviews, especially unstructured ones, fail to capture what really matters. In a world where productivity follows a Pareto distribution<\/strong>\u2014where a small portion of employees produce the most results\u2014you can\u2019t afford to keep guessing.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s time to adopt a smarter, fairer, and more effective approach to hiring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s stop hiring smiles\u2014and start hiring skills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nNeed help improving your hiring process? Contact Divino Solutions<\/a> today for science-backed recruitment solutions or check out how to simplify recruitment<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nReferences (Full List)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n- Indeed Employer Content Team (2024).<\/strong> 10 Recruitment Strategies for Hiring Great Employees.<\/em> Indeed Hiring Resource Center. Last updated July 23, 2024. indeed.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- BDC (Business Development Bank of Canada) (2023).<\/strong> How to Hire the Right People for Your Business \u2013 7 Steps to Avoid Bad Hiring Decisions.<\/em> BDC.ca \u2013 Articles & Tools for Entrepreneurs. bdc.ca<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Cappelli, P. (2019).<\/strong> Your Approach to Hiring Is All Wrong.<\/em> Harvard Business Review<\/strong> (May\u2013June 2019 issue), pp. 48\u201358. hbr.org<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Cappelli, P. (2019).<\/strong> Our Hiring Practices are a Mess.<\/em> LinkedIn Article, Feb 21, 2019. linkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Hoffman, M., Kahn, L.B., & Li, D. (2018).<\/strong> Discretion in Hiring.<\/em> Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133<\/strong>(2), 765\u2013800. (NBER Working Paper No. 21709). Summary: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics\u200bbls.gov<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- CareerBuilder Survey (2017).<\/strong> Nearly Three in Four Employers Affected by a Bad Hire.<\/em> Harris Poll of 2,257 hiring managers (Press Release). Summary reported by HR Dive\u200bhrdive.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Fatemi, F. (2016).<\/strong> The True Cost Of A Bad Hire \u2014 It\u2019s More Than You Think.<\/em> Forbes, Sept 28, 2016. linkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Hayes, L. (2017).<\/strong> Nearly Three in Four Employers Affected By a Bad Hire, According to CareerBuilder Survey.<\/em> CareerBuilder Press Room, Dec 7, 2017\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Schmidt, F.L., & Hunter, J.E. (1998).<\/strong> The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology.<\/em> Psychological Bulletin, 124<\/strong>(2), 262\u2013274. (Meta-analysis of 85 years of personnel selection research)\u200bplum.io<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Plum.io Blog (2020).<\/strong> 3 Things You Must Know About Selection, According to Schmidt & Hunter.<\/em> (Summary of Schmidt & Hunter\u2019s findings)\u200bplum.io<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Peterson, J.B. (2017).<\/strong> Basic Psychometric Issues Surrounding Performance Prediction.<\/em> (Paper\/lecture notes on personality and job performance). Cited in CPA Practice Advisor article \u201cHow to Scientifically Hire\u2026\u201d.\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- CPA Practice Advisor (2017).<\/strong> How to Scientifically Hire the Hardest Working Staff…<\/em> (Oct 6, 2017) \u2013 Quotes research by Jordan Peterson on conscientiousness and hiring\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Energy Project & Harvard Business Review (2014).<\/strong> Why Purpose and Meaning Matter for Employee Engagement.<\/em> HBR.org (study finding engaged employees far more likely to stay)\u200bcpapracticeadvisor.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Willis, J. & Todorov, A. (2006).<\/strong> First Impressions: Making Up Your Mind After a 100-Ms Exposure to a Face.<\/em> Psychological Science, 17<\/strong>(7), 592\u2013598. (Research on rapid first impressions)\u200bthedecisionlab.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The Decision Lab (n.d.).<\/strong> The First Impression Bias.<\/em> (Explainer on how quick judgments form and can be inaccurate)\u200bthedecisionlab.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Indeed Employer Content Team (n.d.).<\/strong> Treat Candidates Like Customers.<\/em> Indeed Hiring Guide \u2013 Interviewing section\u200bindeed.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- LinkedIn Talent Solutions (2016).<\/strong> Global Recruiting Trends 2016.<\/em> (LinkedIn survey data: only 28% of talent leaders say internal candidates are a key source; passive vs active candidate motivations)\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Gladwell, M. (2000).<\/strong> The New-Boy Network.<\/em> The New Yorker<\/strong>, Dec 2000. (On how interviews often fail to predict performance, snap judgments in hiring).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Sinek, S. (2009).<\/strong> Start With Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action.<\/em> New York: Penguin. (Importance of hiring for shared values\/purpose)\u200blinkedin.com<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Schmidt, F.L., Oh, I., & Shaffer, J. (2016).<\/strong> Update of 100 Years of Research Findings in Personnel Selection.<\/em> Journal of Applied Psychology, 102<\/strong>(3), 448\u2013458. (Update to Schmidt & Hunter, confirming cognitive ability & structured interviews as top predictors).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
(All links accessed and verified on April 9, 2025.)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Traditional Interviews Fail to Predict Job Performance Hiring the right person is one of the most important decisions a business can make. Yet, traditional interviews…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":43,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hr-technology-tools","entry"],"yoast_head":"\n
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According to a CareerBuilder study, 74% of employers say they\u2019ve hired the wrong person for a position. The average cost of a bad hire can be as much as $14,900. These mistakes are expensive and avoidable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gallup\u2019s State of the American Manager<\/em> report (2015) revealed that managers are responsible for 70% of the variance in employee engagement. If your interview process places someone incompetent in a managerial role, the fallout can be massive\u2014not just financially but culturally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So, what actually works?<\/p>\n\n\n\n These interviews ask every candidate the same set of questions, with scoring rubrics for each. This reduces the effect of first impressions or personal bias. Structured interviews have much higher predictive validity (around 0.51) compared to unstructured ones (around 0.38), according to Schmidt & Hunter (1998).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Instead of asking \u201cHow would you handle this situation?\u201d, ask them to do<\/strong> it. Can they write, design, or manage as needed? Work samples simulate job tasks and test candidates based on actual performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n General mental ability (GMA) tests are among the most reliable predictors of job success. They measure problem-solving, learning ability, and critical thinking\u2014skills that matter across industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Traits like conscientiousness and emotional stability are strong indicators of job performance. Conscientious employees are dependable and persistent, while emotionally stable employees manage stress well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Removing names, photos, and even educational institutions from resumes can help reduce implicit bias in the early stages of screening. Some companies also anonymize assessments to judge purely on merit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jordan B. Peterson, a clinical psychologist and former University of Toronto professor, has spoken extensively on why face-to-face interviews are flawed. In one of his Personality and Its Transformations<\/em> lectures, he notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cTall, good-looking, extroverted people tend to do much better in interviews than short, unattractive, introverted people. And none of that has anything to do with job performance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n He points out that the most predictive hiring tools are cognitive tests and personality assessments\u2014not gut feelings or charisma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He also critiques the over-reliance on GPA or academic background. A 4.0 GPA from one school might not equal a 4.0 from another. Grades are full of measurement errors and don\u2019t always reflect creativity, work ethic, or adaptability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Peterson argues for a probabilistic model of hiring. Instead of 50\/50 odds of getting a good employee through guesswork, structured testing can raise that to 70\/30\u2014or better. Over time, this drastically improves a company\u2019s talent pool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Let\u2019s compare two hiring scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Scenario 1: Gut-feel Interviews (50\/50 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Scenario 2: Test-Based Hiring (70\/30 success rate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Gain = $100,000\/year<\/strong> from smarter hiring practices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And that\u2019s just from one round of hiring. Multiply this across departments and years, and the difference is exponential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hiring isn\u2019t about finding the flashiest smile or the most confident voice. It\u2019s about finding people who will contribute meaningfully to your organization\u2019s goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Face-to-face interviews, especially unstructured ones, fail to capture what really matters. In a world where productivity follows a Pareto distribution<\/strong>\u2014where a small portion of employees produce the most results\u2014you can\u2019t afford to keep guessing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s time to adopt a smarter, fairer, and more effective approach to hiring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Let\u2019s stop hiring smiles\u2014and start hiring skills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Need help improving your hiring process? Contact Divino Solutions<\/a> today for science-backed recruitment solutions or check out how to simplify recruitment<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n (All links accessed and verified on April 9, 2025.)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Traditional Interviews Fail to Predict Job Performance Hiring the right person is one of the most important decisions a business can make. Yet, traditional interviews…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":43,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hr-technology-tools","entry"],"yoast_head":"\n
\n\n\n\nWhat the Science Says Works Better<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
1. Structured Interviews<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
2. Work Sample Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
3. Cognitive Ability Tests<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
4. Personality Assessments<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
5. Blind Hiring Practices<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nJordan Peterson\u2019s Take on the Interview Trap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n\n\n\nA Business Example: The Cost of Guessing<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n\n\n\nWhat Companies Should Do<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n\n\n\nFinal Thoughts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nReferences (Full List)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n